By Jeremy D. Wells
Carter County Times
With a little over a week before the school district holds their first public meeting on the question of high school consolidation – next Thursday, January 13, 5:30 p.m. at Olive Hill Elementary – the one thing neither opponents nor supporters of consolidation can deny is that the student population in Carter County is declining.
Superintendent of schools Dr. Paul Green released some numbers reflecting that drop over the last ten years, and not only do they reflect a drop in the current high school but an expected future drop as well.
For instance, in the 2010-2011 school year, total enrollment for the district was 4,840 students, with 1,463 enrolled in high school. Of those 1,463 students 621 were enrolled at West Carter High School and 842 at East Carter.
Five years later, in the 2015-2016 school year those total enrollment numbers had fallen by 239 to 4,601; with 1,399 total high school students represented by 792 East Carter students and 617 West Carter students.
While enrollment numbers fluctuate from class to class – there were 142 West Carter seniors compared to 172 freshman in the 2015-2016 school year, and 170 seniors to 208 freshman at East – between transfers to other districts and those who quit school prior to graduation, every school year shows a greater number of freshman than seniors. For instance, the 231 East Carter freshman and 150 West Carter freshman seen in 2010 were down to 200 East Carter seniors and 127 West Carter seniors by the time that freshman class had advanced to their senior year three years later in 2013-2014.
By the 2018-2019 school year, the last year of pre-pandemic data, high school enrollment across the district was down to 1,296 students out of 4,327 total enrollment for the district.
For the current school year, 2021-2022, those numbers have fallen to 1,232 high school students out of a total student population of 3,924.
That’s a steep decline – a loss of 403 total student population over three years, compared to a loss of 513 over the previous eight years. But what role COVID-19 played in that population loss, and if those numbers could rebound, remains to be seen.
The school population fluctuated between the 1999-2000 school year and the present, with a total population of 4,819 in 1999-2000; dropping to 4,756 in 2000-2001; back up to 4,863 in 2001-2002; 4,920 in 2002-2003; 4,913 in 2003-2004; 4,971 in 2004-2005; 5,003 in 2005-2006; 4,992 in 2006-2007; 4,978 in 2007-2008; 4,937 in 2008-2009; and 4,875 in 2009-2010.
But the system has seen an undeniable downward trend, with a loss of more than 1,000 students from their high of 2004-2005.
Whether this falling population is a compelling argument for a move away from two county high schools, toward a consolidated system, however, is a decision, parents, administrators, and the school board will have to consider moving forward.
Contact the writer at editor@cartercountytimes.com
